SALT LAKE CITY — May 7, 2026 — A preliminary analysis of the proposed Box Elder data center found that the combined thermal output of the facility and its associated natural gas power plant could release as much heat as 23 atomic bombs per day and could raise nighttime temperatures by 8℉- 12℉ throughout Hansel Valley in Northern Utah.
The analysis, prepared by Dr. Rob Davies, a physics professor at Utah State University, says that the Stratos Project design is expected to rely on massive “dry cooling” infrastructure, using hundreds of acres of industrial-scale fans to continuously cool down hot radiator pipes. Because the power plant is 55% efficient, Davies estimates the project would generate a total thermal load of approximately 16 gigawatts (GW)—9 GW to power the data center and an additional 7-8 GW of waste heat.
To put that scale into perspective, this is the energy footprint of 40,000 Walmart Supercenters, or 23 atomic bombs worth of energy dumped into this local environment every single day, Davies says.
“The thermal load from the proposed Stratos project is extreme,” Davies said. “There is no way around the physics. This is the energy output of two-and-half New York City’s poured into a single confined desert basin, in a watershed that’s already in crisis. Of course it has effects. One of those effects is this: This facility imposes substantial drying on a watershed and ecosystem already in active collapse.”
The controversial data center would be the largest data center in the world—three times the size of Manhattan—and would use two times the power that the entire state of Utah uses. It is proposed for unincorporated Box Elder County in the Great Salt Lake basin, and could place significant strain on an already-fragile ecosystem with limited water resources.
The preliminary analysis warns that the project’s thermal footprint could significantly alter local temperatures and environmental conditions, particularly at night when temperature inversions trap heat within the valley. Davies found that the plant could raise daytime temperatures throughout Hansel valley by 2℉- 5℉, and could raise nighttime temperatures by 8℉- 12℉.
A permanent rise in nighttime temperatures of this magnitude would suppress the valley’s natural nighttime condensation cycle—a key source of moisture for desert ecosystems, significantly increasing evaporation and drying across the basin, the report says. Over time, sustained warming and drying could fundamentally alter the valley’s ecosystem, leading to the disappearance of biological soil crusts, the loss of sage-grouse winter habitat, failures in native sagebrush regeneration, the spread of invasive cheatgrass, increased wildfire risk, and accelerating erosion throughout the valley.
“If there is any chance these calculations are correct, it would impact farms, wildlands, and Great Salt Lakes in serious ways,” said Ben Abbott, BYU ecologist and executive director of Grow the Flow. “We need access to the full details of the facility and time to analyze the potential impacts before going forward.”
