The South Arm of Great Salt Lake has dropped to 4,192 feet—the official threshold at which Utah warns of “serious adverse effects” to the state’s economy, environment, and public health. According to the state’s strategic framework, anything below this level is a danger zone: where brine shrimp and brine fly populations begin to collapse, mineral extractors face mandatory cutbacks, and exposed lakebed increases the threat of toxic dust storms.
“In truth, we’re really sitting at a scary-low level because we’re sitting at about what we were when we were trending into those lowest levels we had ever seen in 2022,” Great Salt Lake Commissioner Brian Steed said Tuesday in a news conference, according to KSL.com.
That record low came in November 2022, when the South Arm dropped to 4,188.5 feet. Salinity surged to nearly 19%—well beyond the threshold brine shrimp and flies can tolerate—causing hatch rates to plummet and destabilizing the lake’s food web. The brine shrimp harvest fell by several million pounds, migratory birds struggled to find food, and dust storms impacted nearby communities. The crisis pushed Utah into emergency response mode and drew national attention. A record-breaking snowpack the following winter helped temporarily raise lake levels and dilute salinity—but that reprieve is long gone.
Experts estimate that the lake could drop at least another foot by the end of fall. Absent emergency measures or another record breaking snow year, the lake remains on track to break the all-time record low by fall 2026. Already, we’re seeing consequences ripple across industries, with mandatory conservation measures taking effect at 4,192 feet and forcing mineral extraction companies at the lake to take less water. Boaters are watching marinas turn into mudflats, tourism is drying up, and people living downwind of the exposed lakebed are breathing in toxic dust.
All of this is unfolding within the context of a worsening drought. The entirety of Utah is in moderate to severe drought. Reservoir levels dropped nearly 10% between June 1 and July 1—five times the average loss during that time of year. Meanwhile, water demand remains high, with some local water districts reporting that residential water use has increased.
As the lake shrinks, salinity typically rises—threatening ecosystem collapse. But for now, salinity in the South Arm remains relatively stable, in part due to a berm on the Great Salt Lake Causeway that can be adjusted to control flow between the lake’s arms. When water levels drop to 4,190 feet or below, managers close the berm to keep salinity from spiking and prevent additional water from flowing into the hypersaline North Arm. Since the berm was modified in 2022 and raised again in 2023, salinity has stayed in a healthy range, helping sustain the lake’s food web even as water levels continue to fall.
But that buffer won’t hold forever. If water levels continue to fall, the berm won’t be enough to hold back ecological collapse. If we don’t shift course now—if we keep waiting and praying for rain—the lake won’t be the only thing in crisis. Without coordinated action, the risks to public health, economic stability, and ecosystems across the West will grow more severe and harder to reverse.