New long-range forecasts from OpenSnow indicate that Utah’s upcoming winter will likely bring warmer temperatures and below-average snowfall—conditions that could push Great Salt Lake to a historic low by this time next year.
Forecasters expect either neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation conditions or a weak La Niña, patterns that rarely produce the deep snowpack Utah needs to feed the rivers sustaining Great Salt Lake. A colder-than-usual North Atlantic and shifts in upper-atmosphere wind patterns are also expected to limit the number and intensity of storms reaching the state.
For Great Salt Lake, this outlook is sobering. The lake depends on spring snowmelt to replenish water lost to evaporation and upstream diversions. Without significant inflows, the lake’s shrinking shoreline will expose more dust hotspots, threaten the habitat of millions of migratory birds, and devastate one of Utah’s most important economic and ecological assets.
“Each winter we gamble on snow to give Great Salt Lake a lifeline,” said Ben Abbott, a BYU ecologist and executive director of Grow the Flow. “This forecast is a clear signal that we can’t count on the weather to bail us out of this crisis. If we want a healthy lake, we have to act now.”
In 2023, the record-breaking snowpack raised the lake more than five feet after it had reached its lowest level in history the previous fall—4188.5 feet. That extraordinary winter bought Utah time—but it was an anomaly, not a solution.
On July 29 of this year, Great Salt Lake dropped below 4192 ft, exceeding the state’s threshold for “serious adverse effects” to the lake’s ecology, economy, and public health of surrounding communities. Great Salt Lake sits more than 15 feet below its natural level. Scientists warn that it could surpass its record low by late 2026, triggering cascading ecological damage, dust pollution, and billions in economic losses.
That economic fallout includes significant strain on Utah’s ski industry. Great Salt Lake fuels lake-effect snow, which adds up to 10% of annual snowfall in the Cottonwood Canyons and extends ski seasons by 5-7 weeks. As the lake shrinks, its reduced surface area weakens this cycle, leading to shortened ski seasons. Meanwhile, dust from the exposed lakebed can settle on the Wasatch snowpack, darkening it so it absorbs more heat and melts faster.
“With the odds stacked against a lake-saving winter, Utah must accelerate efforts to conserve water, secure dedicated inflows for the lake, and ensure that every drop saved upstream will be shepherded to the lake,” Abbott said. “Weather patterns are beyond our control, but our response is not.”